I’ve asked myself this question too. On the whole, I agree with you, were much more likely to see mass murder events after the election. Worst case scenario, they are coordinated. That said, I see one way America could end up in Civil War that you did not touch on. It won’t be an immediate eruption after the election but would eventually lead to war if certain conditions were met.
If Trump wins the election and continues provoking Democratic cities and states, eventually they’re going to ask themselves if they want to stick around for the finalization of the takeover. There are groups in many states that have already been flirting with the idea of secession again. Over the past 3+ years there’s been an increasing interest in these conversations. You don’t see it in the media much, but more people are aware of what’s happening than the media acknowledge. I’ve heard these conversations on both sides, to be fair. Each side sees the other as the fascist danger on the horizon. Yeah, I know—
So, if a state or group of states draft Articles of Secession, the Federal Government either has to let them go their own way or quell the “rebellion”.
So, in much the same way as happened before, an ideological divide that cannot resolve, reaches an impasse, and inflames the passions of the masses can and will lead to a civil war here in America. We’ve actually got a mass of ideological divides. Decisions on how to handle the climate crisis and the need to move away from fossil fuels over the next administration will probably be the straw that broke the camel’s back. Trump is a climate denier.
Why should California continue to pay massive amounts of money in federal taxes to a government that abandons them in their time of need and says they deserve to burn and gaslights them? Why should New York support so many when their money could be better spent rebuilding infrastructure and preparing for sea level rise?
Don’t think people aren’t asking themselves these questions.