I agree with you here too, about the disconnect. You can't have a modern, functioning democracy with different basic rules from state to state either. Or when the basic autonomy of some ciitizens is being targeted. It doesn't work. It leads to revolution and bloodshed every time. You also can't force religion. Minority rule is not democracy. How many times must this basic basic lesson be learned?
I also think your scenario is a likelihood, at least in some parts of the country, not just a possibility. I would actually be surprised if there were not widespread lynchings of LGBTQ+, elevates murders of women and violence against them, church bombings, assassignations and attempts on Democratic politicians and workers, and infrastructure attacks.
Basically, there will be areas where we have our very own Kristallnacht and coup attempts at county and state level. That's the next, most logical, play for all the bois Trump abandoned to the legal system after Jan 6th.
They're still believers and terrorists.